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About
We are environmentalists, passionately
concerned about the future of the planet.
Our founders (Pavlak, Rudesill, Winsor) are also engineers who have
successfully pioneered and developed workable, unprecedented system concepts.
From this perspective we believe that the future of energy will be determined
by environmentally responsible physics, engineering and economics. We are not
wedded to any specific energy solution, but rather, we strive to find
factually-based technological options for a sustainable future.
·
We believe energy development should be
a strategic process: start with the ultimate goal.
Given what we know today, what are the viable options for powering the planet
without fossil fuel? Once feasible choices are identified, we then work
backwards to figure out how to realistically get there from where we are now.
The currently popular approach of evolving forwards without a strategic plan
runs the risk of expensive stranded technologies and dead end development.
·
Society should be informed of the
significance of all primary energy system constraints (including socialized
cost). This is essential to achieve a
public consensus on how to proceed.
·
Our first effort has been to understand
how to develop wind and solar energy.
The engineering community is only starting to appreciate the full system impact of intermittency. It is technically feasible to build systems with
intermittent generators to reduce fossil fuel consumption to arbitrarily low
levels, but only at the expense of hardware redundancy and consequent high cost. Near fully redundant fossil fuel backup systems are
required for reliable power. The system costs
might be 3-4x current rates, especially since there is yet no scalable storage
solution.
·
The wider society does not yet
appreciate the significance and limits of fracking technology. Natural
gas will likely be the most acceptable energy source for the next 50 years contingent on environmentally responsible fracking technologies
and effective regulations.
·
Effective coal regulation can reduce
atmospheric and solid waste pollution and mountaintop mining impact to
environmentally acceptable levels. However the cost consequences may make coal
uncompetitive with natural gas. The transition could have high social and
economic costs if not carefully planned.
·
The concepts behind legacy nuclear
fission (civilian nuclear power today) need to be rethought. Legacy nuclear
with its radioisotope pollution problems is not a sustainable form of civilian
power. There is potential for new concepts with acceptable cost, safety,
sustainability and security.
·
The future of transportation fuel
remains unclear. The
high energy density of liquid hydrocarbon fuels yields a strong system cost
advantage. The priority for development depends
on how the control of CO2 is prioritized and handled. This, in turn, depends on clarifying the
possibility of climate change associated with the so called “greenhouse
effect”.
·
We see no evidence that nuclear fusion
will be feasible or more attractive than fission. Until real breakthroughs are achieved,
efforts in this technology are likely to be dead end developments.
·
We are mindful of controversies
surrounding CO2 as a greenhouse gas that is seen by some to be a
global warming threat. Whether CO2 is a minor contribution to
climate change or an existential threat is not yet clear to us and must be
clarified.
·
We understand that radioisotope
pollution from nuclear fuel cycles and the biological impact of such pollution
is inadequately understood by society, and may constrain widespread deployment
of nuclear fission.
·
Finally, more clarity is needed to
balance power priorities with other social needs. Effective development of new
energy systems is contingent on effective policies that are based on facts, not
fear or faith or hope.